* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 10/11/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 41 47 51 49 41 30 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 41 47 51 49 41 32 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 35 34 32 27 25 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 13 19 26 39 53 59 52 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 3 4 -2 -2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 94 100 109 112 127 171 201 214 232 241 253 255 285 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.0 25.9 24.7 23.5 28.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 146 143 141 134 123 110 99 155 145 147 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 74 73 72 64 54 45 43 42 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 18 15 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 46 50 46 25 16 20 11 32 40 20 -7 -18 -25 200 MB DIV 82 117 116 118 100 83 55 36 20 0 -27 -14 -24 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -3 -6 -4 0 2 -5 1 3 5 14 LAND (KM) 1056 1023 974 908 838 694 480 283 89 37 -213 -403 -583 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.4 19.3 21.4 23.5 25.9 28.1 29.7 30.6 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.0 115.3 115.4 115.5 115.5 115.2 114.7 113.6 111.7 109.6 107.7 106.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 14 13 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 17 12 9 8 4 0 0 0 14 9 11 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -17. -29. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. -4. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 22. 26. 24. 16. 5. -10. -18. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 114.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 10/11/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.0% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.7% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 2.1% 3.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 9.0% 7.5% 0.3% 0.1% 6.8% 7.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 10/11/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##