* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 10/11/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 23 25 27 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 23 25 27 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 3 9 22 35 51 66 78 72 79 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 0 -3 0 2 1 -2 -2 2 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 31 24 118 199 247 232 231 230 239 242 239 244 249 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.6 27.6 26.5 25.1 23.7 27.9 28.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 140 141 141 130 115 101 147 150 163 164 165 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -54.1 -54.6 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 1 2 1 4 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 74 72 68 61 54 50 52 48 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 27 30 17 22 24 36 32 -3 -9 -45 -91 200 MB DIV 62 81 89 112 102 73 80 54 58 42 36 21 -21 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -6 3 10 18 11 2 5 0 -23 -36 LAND (KM) 690 716 687 615 537 396 196 28 -80 -532 -724 -436 -245 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.8 18.9 21.4 23.8 26.4 29.2 31.7 32.8 32.9 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.9 111.6 112.3 112.9 113.6 113.9 113.2 111.2 107.1 102.0 97.1 92.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 12 12 13 12 14 20 22 21 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 8 7 6 2 0 0 9 10 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. -1. -14. -34. -52. -63. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 0. -14. -27. -36. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.7 110.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 10/11/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 8.0% 4.1% 1.9% 0.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 10/11/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##