* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 08/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 28 33 40 46 50 54 52 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 28 33 40 46 50 54 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 19 18 16 14 12 12 11 18 25 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 2 1 -3 -3 -4 -5 -7 -8 -10 SHEAR DIR 106 106 106 107 97 97 106 93 110 95 94 101 117 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 140 142 144 151 153 153 156 154 155 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 65 66 66 66 65 64 66 69 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 4 5 4 4 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 25 30 34 29 28 31 26 24 22 31 34 16 200 MB DIV 41 48 74 96 94 85 70 42 62 54 30 -5 2 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 5 3 2 LAND (KM) 1978 2020 2076 2132 2207 2349 2457 2274 2113 1981 1881 1816 1786 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.5 12.3 11.8 11.2 10.9 10.8 LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.8 128.3 128.8 129.5 131.1 132.9 134.8 136.5 138.1 139.5 140.4 140.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 8 8 9 9 8 8 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 16 17 20 22 19 20 24 29 35 38 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 13. 20. 26. 30. 34. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 127.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 08/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 08/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##