* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 08/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 28 34 40 46 51 55 58 60 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 28 34 40 46 51 55 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 22 23 25 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 11 13 10 11 10 7 4 7 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -5 -4 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 -7 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 96 112 116 114 119 93 82 91 99 82 91 83 89 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.5 28.1 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 140 137 137 145 150 144 142 144 148 146 147 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 60 61 63 63 60 59 58 57 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 33 31 37 42 42 31 28 22 23 27 32 26 200 MB DIV 35 39 48 57 71 69 60 48 46 43 19 -12 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 1 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1799 1818 1859 1915 1959 2100 2252 2286 2022 1767 1513 1272 1048 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.4 13.7 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 126.0 126.4 126.8 127.4 127.9 129.5 131.5 133.9 136.4 138.9 141.6 144.5 147.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 6 9 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 21 18 16 20 20 10 13 16 26 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.0 126.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 08/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 5.4% 8.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 08/18/19 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING