* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 07/12/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 29 32 35 35 34 32 31 30 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 29 32 35 35 34 32 31 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 28 27 25 23 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 19 21 14 12 12 12 13 13 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 3 3 -3 -5 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 60 47 50 46 57 86 98 135 148 175 232 244 277 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.6 27.4 26.2 26.4 25.6 25.2 24.9 25.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 155 153 152 140 127 130 122 117 114 118 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 4 700-500 MB RH 78 74 72 72 73 64 62 55 53 49 47 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 54 63 70 70 49 45 38 26 22 31 29 35 200 MB DIV 51 61 72 60 39 -1 -31 -10 -5 27 1 10 -14 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -8 -20 -18 -1 -9 1 -2 6 -4 4 -4 LAND (KM) 502 525 565 622 705 727 867 1037 1302 1550 1859 2205 1826 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.1 17.3 18.1 18.7 18.9 18.9 18.6 18.1 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.7 107.9 109.3 110.7 113.6 116.6 119.9 123.3 126.7 130.2 133.8 137.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 26 23 18 15 19 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 105.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 07/12/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.20 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 7.7% 4.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4.6% 4.6% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 07/12/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##