* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 07/12/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 29 33 36 38 38 36 34 33 32 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 29 33 36 38 38 36 34 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 21 21 20 19 18 16 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 18 15 15 22 22 17 16 12 15 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 -2 -2 2 -2 -2 -1 1 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 44 49 64 70 67 60 76 97 140 175 180 221 261 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.8 26.7 27.2 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 159 155 151 144 133 138 124 119 118 124 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 76 72 74 65 64 58 55 48 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 10 10 8 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 21 46 53 55 73 48 54 40 31 37 46 42 200 MB DIV 33 49 64 78 85 48 14 -14 26 20 -4 -10 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -6 -10 -3 -7 4 -1 10 0 3 LAND (KM) 532 563 584 630 672 815 845 974 1144 1403 1657 1955 2154 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 15.2 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.1 18.1 17.8 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.6 106.5 107.5 108.6 111.3 114.0 117.0 120.4 123.8 127.3 130.7 134.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 12 14 15 16 16 17 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 57 35 29 25 18 16 10 2 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 16. 14. 13. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 104.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 07/12/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 6.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 1.3% 2.1% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 2.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 07/12/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##