* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 07/11/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 26 32 35 39 41 39 38 37 37 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 26 32 35 39 41 39 38 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 22 22 21 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 22 17 15 18 22 17 12 14 11 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 -2 3 2 -1 0 1 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 35 42 52 62 74 63 69 91 110 169 203 195 223 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.5 28.8 28.1 27.6 27.3 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 162 162 160 154 147 142 139 128 124 120 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 78 74 73 68 63 60 57 52 50 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -4 12 35 37 68 66 51 46 39 36 49 55 200 MB DIV 0 19 40 58 70 83 40 0 -2 30 -3 -12 -3 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 0 -10 -12 -7 -3 0 3 4 -1 LAND (KM) 518 536 557 577 620 723 849 893 1053 1300 1594 1882 2219 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.6 16.6 17.3 17.5 17.4 17.1 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.3 105.3 106.2 107.2 109.6 112.4 115.3 118.5 122.1 125.7 129.2 132.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 14 14 15 17 17 17 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 61 65 40 30 27 16 16 8 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 15. 19. 21. 19. 18. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.2 103.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 07/11/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.3% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 07/11/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##