* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 09/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 53 66 77 87 92 93 93 92 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 53 66 77 87 92 93 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 45 54 66 77 83 85 86 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 8 8 6 8 14 17 28 24 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 1 0 0 -1 0 3 4 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 317 348 4 11 12 46 33 34 41 41 41 33 8 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 159 160 161 161 159 157 154 153 154 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 78 76 78 79 79 81 81 76 79 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 14 16 20 22 26 28 29 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 46 29 22 18 7 -6 2 -3 32 70 100 116 93 200 MB DIV 90 100 78 51 51 81 88 98 107 121 109 114 91 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 -7 -9 -4 LAND (KM) 524 517 526 534 542 588 642 743 865 980 1100 1082 1040 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 8 9 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 17 21 24 30 47 34 40 25 40 28 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 10. 16. 21. 21. 22. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 8. 12. 23. 36. 47. 57. 62. 63. 63. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 98.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 09/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 25.2% 23.7% 16.2% 10.3% 20.9% 22.8% 41.0% Logistic: 3.2% 18.5% 10.0% 4.5% 0.8% 14.9% 39.2% 44.7% Bayesian: 1.7% 20.6% 9.2% 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 3.5% 16.9% Consensus: 5.9% 21.4% 14.3% 7.8% 3.8% 12.0% 21.8% 34.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 8.0% 20.0% 62.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 09/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX