* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 09/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 36 43 54 71 82 85 88 86 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 36 43 54 71 82 85 88 86 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 34 40 44 47 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 3 5 7 11 12 13 11 24 31 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 0 2 6 4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 359 344 28 11 360 19 358 10 9 30 44 33 29 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 154 156 160 162 163 162 161 158 155 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 81 81 79 78 78 77 78 77 80 77 78 80 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 14 14 17 23 26 26 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 49 43 42 31 19 5 0 -15 -6 17 63 91 98 200 MB DIV 75 67 62 80 76 64 70 78 118 102 98 91 91 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 514 498 485 474 455 464 468 498 562 684 861 1020 1038 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.5 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.0 13.6 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.1 97.6 98.2 98.9 100.5 102.2 104.1 106.1 108.5 110.8 112.4 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 10 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 10 13 17 26 41 51 36 19 21 35 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 15. 20. 20. 25. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 11. 18. 29. 46. 57. 60. 63. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 96.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 09/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.9% 22.7% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 21.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 21.0% 11.6% 5.5% 1.0% 18.7% 15.9% 27.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 0.7% 15.3% 11.5% 1.8% 0.4% 12.7% 12.5% 9.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 09/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX