* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 06/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 47 52 53 54 50 45 40 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 47 52 53 54 50 45 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 38 37 35 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 16 14 13 13 12 10 4 5 4 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 -4 0 0 8 SHEAR DIR 57 59 59 55 60 66 77 86 65 130 242 213 256 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.9 26.7 26.9 26.3 24.9 25.9 23.6 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 151 145 143 130 131 125 112 123 97 98 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 70 68 65 62 56 52 50 45 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 13 12 14 16 15 15 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 50 50 56 66 62 56 36 47 52 70 55 200 MB DIV 59 63 75 63 55 17 16 19 -13 3 -19 -15 -19 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -3 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 763 779 815 865 888 881 975 1040 1090 1167 1326 1414 1504 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 10 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 26 24 19 12 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 10. 15. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 5. 4. 5. 1. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 23. 24. 20. 15. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 107.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 06/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.19 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 -3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.4% 14.8% 9.8% 6.0% 12.6% 14.0% 8.1% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.8% 5.1% 3.3% 2.0% 4.4% 4.9% 3.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 06/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX