* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 10/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 34 36 38 41 41 41 42 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 34 36 38 41 41 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 25 24 23 22 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 9 10 12 5 8 8 6 8 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -6 -5 -4 -4 -5 -5 -8 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 50 45 28 1 342 351 338 329 359 335 301 297 267 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 142 143 145 143 139 137 132 130 131 132 129 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 62 64 65 64 62 57 55 53 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 14 0 -16 -23 -29 -25 -25 -36 -51 -44 -41 -31 -31 200 MB DIV 41 43 20 15 19 28 35 37 28 14 16 11 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 1847 1847 1855 1871 1874 1884 1868 1896 1948 2042 2190 1990 1721 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.3 15.2 16.0 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.2 18.4 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 125.3 125.4 125.6 125.9 126.3 127.2 127.9 128.9 130.2 131.8 133.7 135.9 138.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 6 6 5 7 8 8 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 17 20 20 15 14 10 10 4 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 125.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 10/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.46 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 13.1% 11.3% 7.4% 0.0% 12.5% 13.7% 8.5% Logistic: 0.4% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 1.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 5.4% 4.2% 2.6% 0.1% 4.4% 4.9% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 10/04/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##