* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 10/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 34 35 36 37 40 42 44 44 45 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 34 35 36 37 40 42 44 44 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 34 33 31 30 28 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 9 7 8 13 12 7 7 8 15 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -7 -4 -2 -2 -1 -4 -6 -8 -9 SHEAR DIR 66 72 51 38 5 341 359 7 7 353 359 350 346 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 142 143 144 141 138 139 141 143 144 142 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 62 63 66 68 67 66 67 66 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 17 -4 -19 -27 -30 -45 -50 -63 -55 -43 -15 -9 200 MB DIV 18 29 34 13 9 33 0 34 27 44 2 10 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 0 0 -4 -4 -2 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1870 1893 1909 1933 1949 1970 1991 2008 2059 2144 2289 2212 1978 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.3 15.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 125.7 125.9 126.2 126.5 127.2 128.0 128.7 129.7 130.9 132.6 134.5 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 5 5 4 5 7 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 16 17 19 16 14 16 20 23 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 125.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 10/03/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.50 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 18.6% 14.7% 9.9% 0.0% 15.2% 15.3% 9.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% 3.2% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.5% 5.4% 3.5% 0.1% 5.4% 6.1% 5.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 10/03/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##