* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 10/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 34 35 37 38 38 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 34 35 37 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 22 21 20 19 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 10 5 11 15 12 9 12 7 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 -1 -6 -6 -2 -3 -7 -8 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 75 72 63 68 51 340 341 354 343 335 334 328 305 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 142 145 143 141 141 137 134 130 138 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 60 58 59 62 62 62 60 64 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 37 24 8 -15 -13 -27 -28 -37 -40 -39 -25 200 MB DIV 21 28 35 41 42 5 16 6 30 29 49 17 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1800 1831 1863 1863 1864 1892 1936 1944 1989 2076 2189 2112 1852 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 3 5 5 6 8 7 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 17 18 19 23 19 16 19 20 12 3 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 125.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 10/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.45 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.1% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 4.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 10/03/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##