* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 35 41 53 62 66 67 63 61 56 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 35 41 53 62 66 67 63 61 56 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 47 46 43 38 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 17 16 14 15 16 16 12 4 3 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 8 7 3 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 18 17 20 33 55 42 60 45 45 49 272 213 187 SST (C) 30.4 30.8 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 28.6 27.7 26.9 24.9 23.5 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 173 169 167 165 164 162 150 141 132 111 97 74 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 7 7 8 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 79 78 77 77 73 69 62 60 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 11 13 14 17 17 18 16 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 71 71 62 49 55 67 61 39 22 26 14 7 1 200 MB DIV 94 76 51 45 56 57 31 43 41 8 -25 -15 -27 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -10 -7 -3 -6 2 0 1 0 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 314 338 353 398 461 546 607 510 441 391 373 370 289 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 57 48 36 27 20 19 11 6 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 9. 11. 8. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 16. 28. 37. 41. 42. 38. 36. 31. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 101.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.23 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.38 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.1% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 19.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 28.5% 12.4% 6.1% 6.4% 27.8% 46.8% 23.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% Consensus: 1.1% 19.3% 11.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.3% 22.7% 8.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 22.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##