* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 38 47 58 67 74 77 80 82 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 38 47 58 67 44 32 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 47 36 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 18 15 11 8 8 5 5 8 10 15 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 1 1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 47 34 22 18 355 2 320 336 320 342 346 5 5 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.8 30.6 30.9 30.4 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 165 165 167 171 171 171 169 153 151 152 150 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 5 7 6 8 8 10 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 77 79 77 82 80 81 80 80 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 9 9 12 13 15 15 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 64 69 69 71 64 52 30 17 35 23 50 24 25 200 MB DIV 74 54 46 78 81 59 83 79 57 43 75 33 73 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 3 4 5 6 LAND (KM) 150 161 207 259 291 219 161 112 25 -111 -212 -227 -285 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.8 14.6 15.8 17.3 19.0 20.4 22.1 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 92.8 93.2 93.7 94.4 95.1 96.8 98.4 100.1 101.4 102.2 102.8 103.2 103.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 7 8 8 10 10 10 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 49 46 44 41 43 48 41 31 16 14 15 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. 4. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 7. 9. 13. 12. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 13. 22. 33. 42. 49. 52. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 92.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.23 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 22.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 3.2% 11.1% 23.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Consensus: 0.0% 7.5% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 7.6% 11.0% 8.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##