* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 47 53 65 68 77 79 84 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 47 53 65 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 25 27 30 35 40 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 19 16 11 8 6 7 5 12 9 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 4 2 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 45 42 33 29 28 359 334 321 338 321 296 344 319 SST (C) 29.8 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.4 30.8 30.8 30.6 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 164 163 163 168 171 171 171 153 151 154 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.0 -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 7 7 4 8 5 9 7 12 9 14 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 73 77 77 81 80 82 80 77 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 9 12 13 16 16 21 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR 62 67 69 70 73 61 56 23 34 22 43 33 20 200 MB DIV 46 82 62 50 78 96 82 76 83 47 61 38 80 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 2 2 4 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 160 153 179 223 268 274 202 107 8 -120 -261 -304 -297 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.3 14.0 15.2 16.7 18.5 20.3 22.0 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.7 93.1 93.6 94.2 95.6 97.1 98.6 99.8 100.8 101.5 102.4 103.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 9 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 43 44 42 40 39 45 47 35 15 15 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 13. 20. 20. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 22. 28. 40. 43. 52. 54. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 92.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.04 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 22.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2.9% 2.1% 9.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 7.6% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 7.5% 8.1% 3.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##