* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 32 39 45 54 59 66 69 75 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 32 39 45 54 59 41 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 29 33 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 21 17 15 9 10 9 4 6 8 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 6 5 4 0 -2 -4 -1 -2 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 46 43 41 25 11 19 311 289 297 291 307 322 5 SST (C) 29.6 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 30.4 30.8 30.7 30.9 29.5 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 162 161 160 160 168 170 170 170 159 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 5 7 5 7 6 8 7 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 74 74 78 77 81 78 79 76 77 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 7 9 8 10 10 13 13 17 850 MB ENV VOR 40 60 67 64 53 56 41 34 -1 0 -10 14 -17 200 MB DIV 38 55 80 73 49 92 45 85 67 60 62 66 35 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 -1 3 4 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 222 218 223 251 278 338 291 202 102 18 -78 -140 -259 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.6 13.1 14.0 15.1 16.3 17.6 18.8 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.8 94.7 95.9 97.1 98.2 99.1 99.9 100.9 101.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 41 42 41 39 35 39 45 46 42 22 14 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 29. 34. 41. 44. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 92.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 18.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 3.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 4.5% 5.3% 24.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 0.1% 6.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 6.9% 8.0% 8.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##