* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 31 37 46 53 60 63 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 31 37 46 53 60 53 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 24 21 18 11 8 8 7 4 7 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 6 4 2 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 52 47 48 43 23 3 350 333 316 312 326 312 344 SST (C) 29.3 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.9 30.8 30.7 30.9 30.5 29.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 161 162 162 158 163 170 170 170 169 155 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 5 7 4 8 5 9 6 10 8 700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 74 74 77 76 79 79 79 79 76 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 59 61 59 63 50 47 20 16 -5 -5 -5 200 MB DIV 44 31 44 65 51 56 78 86 70 52 61 59 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 216 212 203 218 244 332 353 274 175 75 -11 -106 -152 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.6 13.3 14.4 15.6 16.8 18.0 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.4 92.7 93.0 93.3 94.3 95.5 96.8 98.0 98.8 99.6 100.2 101.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 37 40 42 42 34 35 45 47 47 34 20 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 12. 21. 28. 35. 38. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 92.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 3.9% 20.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% Consensus: 0.0% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 6.5% 7.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##