* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/16/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 45 52 61 68 75 78 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 45 52 61 68 75 78 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 35 38 42 46 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 14 11 14 17 19 19 13 9 11 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -1 -2 3 2 3 4 5 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 11 22 25 14 37 62 44 28 343 344 311 254 243 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.8 29.7 30.0 29.9 29.7 30.5 31.1 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 137 137 139 150 159 162 162 161 171 172 161 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 6 4 6 5 6 5 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 78 80 78 77 73 75 71 72 70 75 73 78 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 13 15 17 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 39 30 41 40 44 52 32 36 42 38 37 46 19 200 MB DIV 35 58 61 42 19 37 24 54 52 105 71 79 68 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 0 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 335 340 340 343 336 288 247 262 319 361 222 49 -95 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.5 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.5 13.7 15.5 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.9 90.4 90.9 91.4 92.0 92.5 93.1 93.9 94.9 96.1 97.7 99.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 4 7 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 5 7 22 37 40 36 30 35 50 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 20. 27. 36. 43. 50. 53. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 89.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/16/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.2% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1.7% 11.4% 37.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.1% 6.9% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 4.3% 8.0% 12.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/16/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##