* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 07/06/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 48 47 45 40 35 31 29 29 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 49 48 47 45 40 35 31 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 49 48 46 43 39 35 31 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 7 0 3 8 7 7 10 13 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 3 0 -2 0 -2 -3 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 325 332 346 11 276 343 352 295 306 309 315 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.2 27.5 27.4 27.5 26.6 25.0 24.5 24.5 24.3 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 140 138 139 129 111 105 104 102 99 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 61 58 54 52 47 45 43 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 14 14 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 21 11 12 -5 -8 -15 -14 -18 -23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 93 95 95 75 31 29 -2 -19 -8 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -13 0 3 0 0 3 2 0 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 994 1002 1033 1074 1101 1121 1100 1083 1075 1055 1024 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 11 10 8 6 5 3 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 16 7 6 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -5. -10. -14. -16. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.8 114.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 07/06/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.65 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 26.3% 26.3% 0.0% 0.0% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 07/06/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##