* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 07/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 27 30 34 39 39 37 33 28 22 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 27 30 34 39 39 37 33 28 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 19 17 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 20 21 7 6 3 6 13 17 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 1 2 1 -4 0 -1 -3 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 283 261 286 315 327 356 337 307 251 279 290 294 290 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.3 27.1 26.5 24.9 24.6 23.9 23.5 23.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 151 152 149 136 129 112 108 98 94 97 94 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 67 67 65 64 59 53 50 44 39 39 37 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 21 26 19 8 10 11 9 7 1 4 3 200 MB DIV 93 85 105 92 53 42 54 47 18 1 -14 -19 -4 700-850 TADV -11 -4 0 -8 -8 3 -1 0 1 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 843 892 962 944 950 1049 1128 1207 1259 1261 1210 1216 1322 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 13 11 11 8 3 3 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 14 25 23 15 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 9. 14. 14. 12. 8. 3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 109.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 07/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.08 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.0% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 4.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 07/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##