* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 07/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 22 23 26 29 29 25 22 19 16 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 22 23 26 29 29 25 22 19 16 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 16 25 25 34 22 32 30 24 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 3 8 4 2 6 3 4 6 8 2 SHEAR DIR 290 298 303 298 297 302 317 319 328 330 322 295 280 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.8 29.4 28.7 28.1 28.8 27.0 25.4 24.1 23.5 23.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 165 161 154 147 154 134 117 103 96 93 92 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 73 73 71 69 63 59 57 56 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -9 -7 -11 -11 7 10 -10 -10 -13 -25 -21 -26 200 MB DIV 108 132 144 119 79 91 61 63 61 48 12 14 3 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -5 -5 -16 -11 -19 -12 -9 -4 -4 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 821 845 835 840 849 897 904 905 898 872 827 747 675 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 11.2 11.9 12.7 14.4 15.8 17.3 18.7 20.1 21.4 22.5 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.7 106.1 107.5 108.9 111.6 114.2 116.3 118.0 119.1 119.5 119.6 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 16 16 15 14 11 10 8 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 37 45 30 15 18 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -17. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.2 103.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 07/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 13.4% 7.1% 3.2% 0.5% 4.2% 4.0% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 5.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 6.1% 3.1% 1.2% 0.2% 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 07/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##