* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 09/25/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 42 56 73 87 93 98 100 106 105 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 42 56 73 87 93 98 100 106 105 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 43 56 72 85 93 99 100 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 9 9 9 11 6 6 6 3 2 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 91 69 31 52 69 58 54 62 34 334 314 279 200 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 157 156 155 153 153 150 150 150 150 144 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.6 -52.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 72 71 71 70 73 71 69 68 67 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 14 20 25 26 29 31 34 37 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 23 29 29 28 27 49 59 51 50 37 26 200 MB DIV 68 75 74 72 75 85 59 53 77 20 107 79 67 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -4 0 6 LAND (KM) 545 579 597 630 646 707 809 923 969 993 953 874 738 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.0 15.0 15.2 16.0 17.5 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.1 107.8 108.5 109.0 110.0 111.2 112.7 113.9 114.8 115.4 116.1 116.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 4 5 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 27 27 26 25 22 22 32 34 23 17 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 16. 24. 30. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 7. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 17. 31. 48. 62. 68. 73. 75. 81. 80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 106.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 09/25/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.74 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.8% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 22.6% 0.0% Logistic: 19.0% 57.3% 42.7% 27.7% 26.0% 55.9% 78.2% 61.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 22.2% 13.8% 5.9% 1.2% 10.1% 16.5% 26.2% Consensus: 6.6% 36.1% 27.3% 11.2% 9.1% 29.2% 39.1% 29.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.0% 28.0% 36.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 09/25/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX