* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 09/24/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 37 49 63 77 88 95 100 106 107 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 37 49 63 77 88 95 100 106 107 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 39 51 66 78 87 95 101 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 4 8 8 10 5 5 2 6 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 1 1 0 -3 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 28 77 80 45 47 61 49 46 69 21 349 95 227 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 158 157 156 155 153 153 151 150 150 150 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 74 72 72 70 71 70 70 70 69 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 11 12 14 18 22 25 26 29 32 36 850 MB ENV VOR 11 24 29 27 32 34 30 44 65 66 58 40 27 200 MB DIV 48 59 75 88 76 90 66 48 62 58 75 65 28 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 -3 -5 -8 -5 3 LAND (KM) 514 535 565 591 605 630 701 831 914 1060 1084 976 801 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.5 14.9 14.9 16.1 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.3 106.9 107.5 108.1 109.0 110.1 111.7 113.8 115.5 115.9 115.9 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 6 5 5 6 9 10 5 4 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 43 30 27 26 27 26 22 22 32 18 16 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 22. 26. 29. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 12. 24. 38. 52. 63. 70. 75. 81. 82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 105.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 09/24/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.83 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.18 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 23.4% 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 20.9% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 37.8% 27.1% 14.7% 10.5% 35.3% 45.3% 37.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 10.0% 3.0% 0.9% 0.7% 2.4% 5.5% 19.4% Consensus: 2.2% 23.8% 17.8% 5.2% 3.7% 19.3% 23.9% 18.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 15.0% 51.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 09/24/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX