* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 09/24/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 36 46 57 71 83 92 97 101 105 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 36 46 57 71 83 92 97 101 105 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 58 72 82 89 94 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 3 5 11 10 10 7 3 2 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 2 2 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 36 41 74 73 59 58 67 73 19 52 346 46 76 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 159 158 156 156 154 154 153 152 148 150 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 74 76 76 74 73 72 72 73 72 69 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 11 13 16 20 23 25 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR -2 7 18 19 21 26 28 29 45 65 64 52 47 200 MB DIV 30 46 61 75 92 92 88 55 34 68 30 69 71 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 497 519 547 566 604 637 651 691 798 898 988 1063 990 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.2 15.0 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.3 106.0 106.5 107.1 108.0 108.7 109.5 111.0 112.9 114.7 115.7 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 5 5 4 4 5 9 9 8 2 6 HEAT CONTENT 50 45 36 30 28 26 25 23 22 30 24 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 9. 16. 21. 23. 25. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 21. 32. 46. 58. 67. 72. 76. 80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 104.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 09/24/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.1% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 21.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 21.1% 14.8% 6.8% 4.9% 17.5% 20.7% 24.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 4.4% Consensus: 0.9% 17.2% 13.6% 2.4% 1.7% 12.8% 14.5% 9.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 09/24/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX