* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 09/24/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 37 47 59 70 81 93 101 107 105 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 37 47 59 70 81 93 101 107 105 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 58 74 91 104 109 111 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 3 2 5 6 10 7 3 4 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -5 -2 -5 -3 -5 0 2 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 356 31 54 118 147 60 69 75 65 79 8 28 17 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 163 163 163 160 158 155 156 153 153 154 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 76 76 72 73 71 70 73 73 73 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 10 11 14 17 22 25 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 6 22 20 30 40 37 46 67 71 68 54 200 MB DIV 43 30 36 49 67 80 84 51 47 55 58 58 30 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -7 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 416 421 414 404 421 492 579 692 863 1013 1124 1139 944 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.3 15.3 14.9 14.3 13.6 13.5 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.1 103.8 104.4 105.1 106.7 108.4 109.9 111.6 113.2 114.2 114.3 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 9 8 7 9 8 3 4 11 HEAT CONTENT 46 52 50 45 38 26 19 18 24 43 34 31 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 8. 14. 21. 26. 31. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 12. 22. 34. 45. 56. 68. 76. 82. 80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 102.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 09/24/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.42 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.8% 26.5% 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 35.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 30.9% 19.3% 10.3% 7.4% 44.7% 35.8% 36.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 1.7% Consensus: 1.1% 20.6% 15.3% 3.5% 2.6% 22.8% 24.0% 12.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 09/24/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX