* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 09/24/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 39 46 61 77 88 98 104 107 114 116 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 39 46 61 77 88 98 104 107 114 116 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 35 45 60 81 101 113 118 121 126 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 3 9 9 8 11 7 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 -5 -2 0 1 -1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 334 358 29 53 107 86 91 74 72 44 51 23 89 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 163 163 162 161 158 156 155 153 153 153 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 10 8 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 74 75 74 70 70 71 71 75 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 9 11 11 12 14 16 22 26 27 32 36 850 MB ENV VOR 7 0 -1 10 26 28 42 38 43 52 66 60 55 200 MB DIV 60 47 33 53 70 89 87 68 58 55 69 38 43 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 -4 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 404 409 418 400 406 477 548 654 785 943 1013 992 825 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.4 14.7 14.3 14.5 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.7 103.5 104.3 105.0 106.6 108.2 109.7 111.1 112.4 113.2 113.2 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 5 3 4 10 HEAT CONTENT 41 50 51 45 38 26 20 18 21 32 43 41 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 36.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 18. 24. 27. 33. 37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 16. 13. 6. 1. -3. -6. -8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 21. 36. 52. 63. 73. 79. 82. 89. 91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 101.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 09/24/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.92 10.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -5.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 53.3% 35.5% 0.0% 0.0% 45.9% 52.4% 0.0% Logistic: 19.7% 69.8% 59.5% 43.1% 35.4% 77.6% 86.5% 77.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 9.9% 4.4% 1.8% 1.1% 7.5% 8.3% 30.8% Consensus: 6.7% 44.3% 33.1% 14.9% 12.2% 43.7% 49.1% 36.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 09/24/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX