* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 08/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 51 71 82 97 101 97 84 72 61 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 51 71 82 97 101 97 84 72 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 51 64 79 84 69 55 43 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 6 6 12 3 1 6 3 5 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 3 4 0 2 1 0 1 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 334 360 23 6 30 97 298 235 284 123 22 11 21 SST (C) 28.6 29.3 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 29.2 25.0 22.6 23.4 22.5 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 156 163 163 165 168 172 160 116 90 96 85 75 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.1 -52.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 4 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 76 77 76 78 73 70 69 68 70 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 15 23 24 31 31 31 26 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -37 -29 -31 -15 27 39 82 60 76 75 52 32 200 MB DIV 100 113 130 137 137 112 76 79 1 31 5 12 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 1 2 2 -10 -6 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 569 553 517 508 500 407 335 235 164 381 580 631 623 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.3 14.7 15.1 16.3 18.1 20.8 23.4 24.4 24.2 24.7 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.4 105.8 106.3 106.7 107.1 107.9 109.7 112.8 116.5 119.2 120.3 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 7 13 18 19 16 8 6 11 HEAT CONTENT 49 42 38 36 33 30 21 11 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 46.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 26. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 11. 22. 27. 27. 21. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 21. 17. 8. 2. -4. -8. -11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 21. 41. 53. 67. 71. 67. 54. 42. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 104.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.36 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.83 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.88 -4.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 28.5% 27.8% 19.5% 0.0% 23.2% 43.4% 41.6% Logistic: 5.8% 39.0% 27.1% 15.1% 2.3% 34.6% 39.8% 9.3% Bayesian: 7.7% 25.9% 25.5% 6.7% 0.3% 7.7% 10.1% 23.2% Consensus: 9.0% 31.1% 26.8% 13.8% 0.9% 21.8% 31.1% 24.7% DTOPS: 4.0% 34.0% 21.0% 10.0% 3.0% 37.0% 44.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX