* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 08/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 46 65 80 91 96 92 87 77 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 46 65 80 91 96 92 87 77 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 37 46 57 67 67 59 47 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 9 9 9 6 3 2 4 7 1 1 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 5 7 3 1 0 8 9 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 353 348 356 34 34 61 11 235 102 133 215 343 124 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.4 28.5 25.3 23.5 21.9 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 157 160 162 165 167 171 152 120 101 82 71 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -51.8 -51.3 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 73 74 74 75 75 77 75 67 63 60 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 15 21 24 29 30 28 28 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -43 -37 -30 -28 1 21 50 63 57 79 66 70 200 MB DIV 113 93 115 131 140 101 92 54 13 8 -19 -24 1 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -5 -5 0 2 11 -7 -2 -11 7 -3 LAND (KM) 602 612 589 583 566 516 410 363 274 282 512 764 962 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.6 13.9 14.2 15.0 16.2 18.2 20.5 22.8 24.2 24.8 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.4 105.9 106.3 106.5 106.8 107.0 108.3 110.6 114.0 118.2 121.9 124.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 4 5 9 15 17 20 19 14 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 47 47 47 46 37 29 18 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 46.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 33. 34. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 19. 24. 23. 23. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 21. 17. 8. 2. -4. -8. -11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 21. 40. 55. 66. 71. 67. 62. 52. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 104.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.44 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 -4.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 36.2% 27.5% 0.0% 0.0% 27.7% 48.2% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 46.9% 29.7% 18.7% 3.3% 43.7% 37.3% 22.1% Bayesian: 2.4% 14.7% 14.9% 4.3% 0.2% 7.9% 15.6% 17.5% Consensus: 3.2% 32.6% 24.0% 7.7% 1.2% 26.5% 33.7% 13.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 15.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX