* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 08/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 53 69 81 94 100 99 100 95 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 53 69 81 94 100 99 100 95 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 53 67 80 85 81 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 6 9 11 8 16 18 13 17 11 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 2 2 5 5 3 4 2 2 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 5 349 332 317 315 3 70 46 2 7 52 359 9 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.9 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.4 29.0 30.1 30.7 27.7 25.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 164 161 157 151 146 154 168 176 147 121 111 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 6 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 75 74 74 70 73 77 76 70 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 16 20 24 30 34 35 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -30 -37 -45 -48 -41 -8 -8 11 34 39 68 141 200 MB DIV 68 102 85 69 68 110 112 134 103 22 17 7 20 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -8 -6 -5 -4 -1 0 0 -3 -8 -12 -14 LAND (KM) 530 523 562 615 670 748 794 713 468 320 379 761 1039 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.7 13.1 13.0 15.0 18.6 21.2 21.3 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.7 105.0 106.1 107.0 107.9 108.8 108.6 107.1 106.1 108.1 113.2 118.7 121.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 10 9 7 3 5 9 16 24 28 20 12 HEAT CONTENT 67 46 45 49 44 35 35 48 34 18 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 28.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 9. 16. 25. 31. 35. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 26. 33. 34. 38. 38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 9. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 28. 44. 56. 69. 75. 74. 76. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 103.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.46 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.9% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 21.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 15.7% 8.0% 3.6% 0.7% 12.3% 22.7% 19.2% Bayesian: 1.6% 14.0% 7.8% 2.7% 0.2% 0.7% 1.4% 12.4% Consensus: 1.4% 18.9% 13.3% 2.1% 0.3% 11.3% 15.3% 10.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 24.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX