* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 08/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 58 74 86 97 107 111 106 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 58 74 86 97 107 111 106 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 45 55 69 81 86 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 4 6 8 5 6 7 6 3 9 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 1 2 4 5 3 1 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 359 349 353 332 302 305 22 79 50 3 33 70 36 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.7 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 29.9 28.6 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 162 155 159 163 163 163 166 165 153 139 139 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -52.7 -53.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.4 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 77 77 76 76 77 77 76 71 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 15 20 24 26 31 36 38 38 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -34 -33 -35 -36 -29 -14 19 15 33 22 -8 4 200 MB DIV 71 81 129 120 100 87 109 133 91 59 25 56 20 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -5 -2 -2 -2 0 0 3 -3 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 514 503 508 501 503 530 561 527 470 443 411 601 761 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.2 16.1 17.9 19.6 20.0 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 101.4 102.3 103.3 104.2 105.0 106.2 107.1 107.4 107.8 109.0 111.8 115.0 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 5 4 3 8 13 16 12 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 52 69 60 45 41 42 37 32 18 8 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 8. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 17. 21. 29. 37. 39. 38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 7. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 33. 49. 61. 72. 82. 86. 81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 101.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.51 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.0% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 24.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 3.4% 12.4% 17.7% Bayesian: 1.3% 4.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% Consensus: 0.5% 11.3% 9.6% 0.4% 0.1% 8.2% 12.2% 12.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX