* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 08/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 55 68 81 91 100 105 109 103 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 55 68 81 91 100 105 109 103 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 32 37 44 53 62 72 77 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 10 6 5 5 1 2 4 4 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 1 4 7 3 5 2 1 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 36 27 28 39 40 325 13 176 39 311 11 30 35 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.1 28.6 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 149 147 152 162 163 165 157 151 139 133 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -51.7 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 77 76 77 78 78 79 76 73 74 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 12 13 13 15 19 24 26 31 34 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -54 -55 -56 -54 -36 -14 16 28 46 38 15 22 200 MB DIV 115 94 95 117 124 114 113 132 77 48 28 71 25 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -3 0 1 -2 3 0 5 0 -2 -10 LAND (KM) 697 708 690 661 639 554 459 409 391 495 470 553 621 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.0 13.2 14.4 15.6 16.8 18.2 19.1 19.6 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.9 102.4 102.9 103.3 104.2 104.9 106.0 107.5 109.8 112.0 114.0 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 12 13 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 29 31 34 51 44 33 30 17 9 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 30.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 16. 24. 30. 34. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 10. 18. 23. 31. 36. 40. 37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 10. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 30. 43. 56. 66. 75. 80. 84. 78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 101.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 08/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.34 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.26 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.75 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.88 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.2% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 29.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 7.7% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 6.6% 24.6% 29.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 9.3% Consensus: 0.1% 10.8% 7.7% 0.4% 0.1% 8.9% 18.0% 12.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 08/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX