* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 06/24/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 39 40 38 34 29 25 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 39 40 38 34 29 25 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 31 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 11 8 8 2 7 4 4 5 7 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 1 1 0 5 2 5 5 3 6 7 SHEAR DIR 64 55 38 30 21 3 311 318 313 284 227 200 188 SST (C) 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.6 26.0 24.4 23.2 22.9 22.5 22.6 22.8 22.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 137 130 123 107 94 91 87 88 90 91 91 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 62 61 56 50 49 45 44 40 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 52 44 43 36 35 34 30 34 37 43 32 29 200 MB DIV 56 65 53 30 11 15 -3 -25 -17 -21 -30 -17 -20 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -6 -4 -2 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 5 0 6 LAND (KM) 1161 1085 992 909 866 829 932 1096 1239 1373 1502 1649 1831 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.7 15.7 16.8 17.7 19.1 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.4 20.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.6 115.6 115.8 116.2 117.5 119.5 121.5 123.5 125.4 127.4 129.3 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 16. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 4. -1. -5. -10. -15. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 115.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 06/24/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 145.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 06/24/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING