* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 06/23/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 41 38 34 30 25 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 41 38 34 30 25 18 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 31 29 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 15 16 11 11 6 6 4 4 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 -1 2 5 5 6 3 5 SHEAR DIR 50 50 58 52 37 30 12 339 326 301 234 231 234 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.2 25.8 23.9 22.8 22.5 22.5 22.8 22.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 143 137 122 102 91 87 86 89 91 88 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 63 63 62 55 46 45 43 42 38 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 38 49 42 34 42 37 35 44 35 32 29 200 MB DIV 44 39 41 42 39 22 2 4 -12 -17 -27 -21 -13 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -7 -8 -1 -7 0 -6 0 -1 3 2 LAND (KM) 1279 1239 1176 1090 996 868 846 990 1188 1342 1452 1547 1664 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.7 15.8 18.0 19.4 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.8 20.5 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 115.8 115.7 115.7 115.8 116.5 118.1 120.5 123.0 125.0 126.3 128.0 129.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 8 10 12 11 11 12 11 8 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 14 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 16. 13. 9. 5. -0. -7. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 115.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 06/23/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 06/23/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING