* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 06/23/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 40 40 39 34 30 25 22 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 40 40 39 34 30 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 18 19 17 20 14 10 8 9 6 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -5 -3 0 0 1 0 3 5 1 5 SHEAR DIR 68 56 53 57 59 39 37 22 351 353 8 38 23 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 27.9 26.8 25.5 23.4 22.3 22.2 22.8 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 153 152 144 132 119 97 87 86 91 93 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.5 -53.7 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 64 64 63 62 59 50 46 43 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 10 12 11 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 3 12 19 17 20 19 27 34 51 46 37 200 MB DIV 41 54 57 46 51 41 29 8 -6 -22 -15 -22 -19 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -4 -5 -7 -3 -6 -3 -4 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1358 1353 1353 1329 1269 1058 838 755 784 1002 1220 1473 1660 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.5 13.0 14.8 17.0 18.8 20.0 20.5 20.6 20.2 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.2 116.0 115.3 115.0 115.8 117.9 120.9 124.1 126.9 128.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 4 7 11 10 11 12 15 15 12 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 16 16 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 26. 28. 30. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 20. 20. 19. 14. 10. 6. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.2 116.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 06/23/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 98.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 06/23/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING