* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 06/22/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 36 43 43 44 41 37 33 28 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 36 43 43 44 41 37 33 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 26 25 23 20 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 17 18 17 20 15 12 7 6 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 3 1 3 5 4 5 SHEAR DIR 73 65 58 57 57 58 40 37 23 32 348 27 58 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 27.5 26.6 25.5 24.0 23.1 22.6 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 151 153 152 139 129 118 103 94 89 91 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 62 64 62 60 61 57 50 46 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 9 11 11 11 10 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 -1 -5 2 18 20 22 10 28 38 46 37 200 MB DIV 36 44 60 61 44 68 54 18 -7 -20 -17 -20 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -2 -7 -7 -5 -7 -4 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1378 1383 1388 1383 1358 1205 964 790 770 832 1016 1227 1434 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.2 13.5 15.5 17.4 18.7 19.4 19.7 19.7 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.3 116.4 116.3 116.2 115.7 114.8 114.8 115.9 117.9 120.5 123.2 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 0 1 4 9 11 8 9 11 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 18 17 16 15 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 31. 32. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 23. 23. 24. 21. 17. 13. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 116.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 06/22/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 06/22/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING