* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952017 09/11/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 29 35 40 42 41 37 33 31 29 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 29 35 40 42 41 37 33 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 22 22 21 21 19 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 15 17 19 16 17 13 17 16 16 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 5 3 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 98 94 99 100 111 118 132 151 155 198 234 254 250 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.6 25.9 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 155 150 144 139 134 129 121 115 113 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 68 66 64 59 57 49 43 37 33 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 63 60 66 65 49 48 40 34 36 46 26 15 200 MB DIV 85 89 76 62 60 26 32 13 -7 -7 -13 -12 3 700-850 TADV 1 -1 1 3 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 0 LAND (KM) 454 569 705 782 854 1060 1216 1336 1437 1474 1497 1520 1543 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.4 20.0 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 109.1 110.7 112.3 114.0 117.1 119.8 122.0 123.9 125.3 126.5 127.3 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 14 12 10 9 8 6 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 24 19 23 27 10 8 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -0. 6. 14. 23. 29. 33. 34. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 15. 20. 22. 21. 17. 13. 11. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.2 107.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 09/11/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 20.4% 8.1% 3.4% 2.0% 14.2% 31.1% 14.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 7.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.7% 4.8% 10.4% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 09/11/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##