* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952017 09/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 42 45 45 42 39 38 36 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 42 45 45 42 39 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 23 23 23 22 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 15 18 18 17 19 14 16 13 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 4 5 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 91 98 95 94 95 111 112 138 140 152 184 207 254 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 158 156 152 147 144 141 136 131 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 71 69 66 62 60 55 48 43 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 57 63 63 73 85 53 50 39 48 37 59 41 200 MB DIV 63 93 97 88 75 66 27 21 -8 -3 -43 -26 0 700-850 TADV 4 1 -1 1 4 6 5 6 4 3 4 0 1 LAND (KM) 363 468 594 737 824 1011 1217 1363 1483 1569 1628 1664 1720 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.8 16.3 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.9 109.4 111.0 112.6 115.9 118.8 121.2 123.3 124.9 126.3 127.2 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 15 13 11 10 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 27 27 22 20 30 21 13 11 7 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -0. 5. 14. 23. 29. 33. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 25. 25. 22. 19. 18. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.4 106.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 09/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 62.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 22.9% 8.8% 3.0% 1.4% 16.8% 35.7% 25.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% Consensus: 0.7% 8.3% 3.0% 1.0% 0.5% 5.7% 12.1% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 09/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##