* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952017 07/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 42 55 64 70 69 67 61 55 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 42 55 64 70 69 67 61 55 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 51 52 49 44 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 5 2 1 5 6 6 8 2 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -2 -4 -3 -2 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 323 326 354 29 17 47 200 184 173 118 199 225 231 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.2 26.8 25.0 24.8 24.0 22.0 20.5 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 154 148 134 114 108 102 83 67 63 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.6 -52.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 75 74 73 73 69 65 56 56 56 55 49 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 18 20 22 21 21 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 33 31 24 28 19 39 24 16 13 42 36 200 MB DIV 64 79 97 103 76 73 43 14 -6 11 -10 -13 -6 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1070 1116 1132 1127 1101 986 803 857 955 891 769 733 914 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.3 14.3 16.9 18.5 18.5 19.4 21.8 24.0 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.2 111.7 112.0 112.2 112.6 114.3 117.1 118.6 118.7 119.1 121.0 123.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 5 7 14 16 12 3 9 14 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 47 49 44 34 19 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 11. 11. 8. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 30. 39. 45. 44. 42. 36. 30. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 110.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.40 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.6% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 20.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 21.7% 12.7% 9.0% 4.0% 34.4% 46.3% 9.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 7.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 2.2% 0.5% Consensus: 1.2% 18.3% 11.7% 3.2% 1.3% 19.9% 23.0% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##