* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952017 07/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 37 42 56 65 73 73 71 66 59 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 37 42 56 65 73 73 71 66 59 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 38 47 56 58 55 50 43 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 8 7 2 2 5 5 4 5 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -5 -1 -1 -2 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 329 331 342 11 34 336 212 190 134 189 166 169 213 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.7 27.4 26.2 25.0 24.2 23.1 21.8 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 153 154 152 139 126 112 103 92 80 68 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 75 73 73 66 62 57 57 55 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 15 15 17 19 22 22 22 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 31 34 28 30 23 32 37 28 22 33 37 200 MB DIV 65 65 69 88 94 81 50 36 31 0 6 -13 -17 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -6 -3 0 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1005 1051 1085 1109 1082 1002 867 807 863 884 833 779 779 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 12.0 13.5 15.7 17.6 18.5 19.2 20.3 22.1 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.3 111.0 111.5 111.6 112.1 113.2 115.3 117.2 118.4 118.8 119.6 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 4 5 10 14 12 8 6 7 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 46 50 45 32 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 25. 27. 28. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 17. 31. 40. 48. 48. 46. 41. 34. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 109.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.42 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.7% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 24.7% 21.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 24.3% 13.5% 9.8% 4.8% 37.9% 59.2% 26.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 11.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 3.0% 5.7% 1.2% Consensus: 1.7% 21.3% 12.5% 3.5% 1.7% 21.9% 28.9% 9.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##