* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952017 07/07/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 44 56 66 71 72 69 66 61 56 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 44 56 66 71 72 69 66 61 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 42 50 60 65 62 56 51 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 7 8 3 1 7 8 4 6 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 -6 -4 -6 -2 0 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 314 293 328 351 21 49 24 223 200 197 171 180 203 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.3 27.1 25.6 24.9 24.8 24.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 153 153 155 148 136 120 111 106 102 89 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 76 74 73 70 65 58 53 53 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 19 19 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 24 31 33 24 20 0 20 21 22 -6 12 200 MB DIV 66 65 65 69 77 65 41 7 16 30 10 -21 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 0 -2 -5 -2 -4 1 LAND (KM) 946 998 1039 1088 1105 1064 961 809 829 941 1006 929 880 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 12.3 14.2 16.5 18.1 18.5 18.5 19.4 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.2 110.1 110.9 111.3 111.7 112.2 113.7 116.1 118.4 119.3 119.2 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 3 7 12 14 13 9 1 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 38 43 42 46 49 43 25 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 31. 41. 46. 47. 44. 41. 36. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 108.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.41 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 47.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 32.8% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0% 26.6% 32.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.3% 48.8% 35.1% 30.3% 19.8% 50.6% 74.8% 44.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 22.8% 5.9% 2.0% 0.6% 5.2% 9.1% 2.2% Consensus: 5.8% 34.8% 21.8% 10.8% 6.8% 27.5% 38.6% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##