* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952017 07/06/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 44 56 70 75 78 75 70 66 62 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 44 56 70 75 78 75 70 66 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 36 43 52 64 73 68 58 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 0 2 4 7 2 1 6 9 6 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 -3 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 295 110 320 9 360 35 21 240 224 198 197 181 117 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 27.9 25.9 23.7 24.1 24.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 154 152 152 156 145 125 101 102 107 96 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 78 76 75 75 70 64 55 50 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 15 16 16 19 19 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 23 23 29 28 20 9 15 28 38 11 -4 200 MB DIV 73 60 73 62 56 82 59 30 25 12 1 11 5 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 887 948 1017 1103 1158 1149 989 796 612 722 945 975 815 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.1 10.9 11.0 12.6 15.5 18.4 19.8 19.3 18.7 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.7 109.7 110.7 111.3 111.3 111.0 111.3 113.4 116.8 119.3 119.1 118.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 4 4 12 16 19 15 7 5 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 43 42 44 50 50 40 16 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 31. 45. 50. 53. 50. 45. 41. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 107.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.97 8.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.40 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 3.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 38.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.2% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 26.5% 32.6% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 34.7% 22.5% 12.7% 5.2% 44.1% 58.5% 45.7% Bayesian: 2.2% 23.5% 5.7% 1.4% 0.7% 6.4% 9.0% 6.8% Consensus: 3.1% 29.5% 17.6% 4.7% 2.0% 25.7% 33.3% 17.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##