* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952017 07/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 35 48 60 65 68 65 59 54 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 35 48 60 65 68 65 59 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 24 28 34 41 43 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 4 4 0 3 6 4 7 8 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 -6 -6 -2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 278 277 224 238 253 163 67 66 149 200 205 192 138 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.0 26.3 23.7 23.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 154 155 154 152 154 146 129 102 95 102 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 77 76 73 72 72 72 65 56 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 15 14 17 17 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 5 14 16 25 24 29 15 9 -8 -1 18 31 39 200 MB DIV 70 64 55 62 60 55 57 56 24 3 1 -22 10 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -1 0 0 -5 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 821 840 875 943 1011 1146 1227 1124 934 685 710 909 1086 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.5 11.3 12.4 14.8 17.8 19.8 20.3 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.8 107.8 108.9 110.1 111.9 112.8 112.6 112.4 113.7 116.6 119.7 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 7 2 9 15 17 16 11 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 38 43 41 53 47 36 19 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 23. 30. 34. 35. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -6. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 10. 10. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 28. 40. 45. 48. 45. 39. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 105.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 28.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 26.7% 15.6% 10.5% 4.6% 30.4% 41.2% 46.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 2.9% 1.5% Consensus: 1.5% 11.1% 5.6% 3.6% 1.6% 10.6% 14.7% 16.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##