* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952016 09/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 29 35 42 47 53 56 56 58 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 29 35 42 47 53 56 56 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 32 37 42 45 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 5 6 6 6 4 3 2 6 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 105 123 141 139 129 137 118 116 54 296 331 343 21 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 145 145 148 149 149 149 148 147 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 52 53 53 49 47 47 47 46 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -2 -1 3 3 13 12 11 13 6 0 1 -11 200 MB DIV 24 26 22 21 29 12 17 -2 -9 -11 4 19 21 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2039 1976 1919 1867 1817 1746 1680 1608 1538 1478 1433 1417 1389 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.0 10.4 10.0 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.5 8.6 LONG(DEG W) 137.6 138.2 138.8 139.4 140.0 141.1 142.3 143.5 144.8 146.1 147.2 148.0 148.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 17 22 28 40 43 40 45 57 66 72 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 15. 22. 27. 33. 36. 36. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 137.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST 09/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 124.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.19 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 14.3% 9.3% 5.1% 2.5% 10.2% 15.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 5.1% 3.2% 1.7% 0.8% 3.4% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST 09/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##