* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952016 09/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 33 40 45 50 56 58 60 59 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 33 40 45 50 56 58 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 31 35 40 45 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 6 5 7 6 7 2 2 5 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 95 104 120 146 131 115 126 135 92 27 357 32 10 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 145 145 148 149 149 148 148 146 145 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 58 55 54 53 53 53 52 50 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -2 7 9 11 17 22 17 13 7 7 6 1 200 MB DIV 26 26 30 27 25 19 27 4 -22 -16 -6 24 34 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2078 2015 1957 1900 1854 1776 1716 1672 1631 1574 1516 1473 1435 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.5 11.1 10.5 9.8 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.8 LONG(DEG W) 137.2 137.8 138.4 139.0 139.6 140.7 141.8 142.9 144.0 145.1 146.2 147.0 147.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 16 19 24 36 43 45 45 50 63 69 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 25. 30. 36. 38. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 137.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST 09/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.15 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 10.5% 5.4% 1.7% 0.7% 5.1% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 3.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST 09/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##