* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952016 09/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 39 46 49 54 55 56 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 39 46 49 54 55 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 32 36 41 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 10 7 9 8 8 5 2 3 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 95 90 98 112 123 106 101 109 128 26 301 356 358 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 145 145 148 147 148 147 146 146 146 147 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 58 57 54 54 50 51 50 50 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -13 -5 0 5 4 12 13 6 2 0 5 2 200 MB DIV 29 25 30 30 24 18 19 19 -19 -33 -17 6 28 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2130 2067 2005 1963 1913 1847 1807 1766 1733 1675 1609 1553 1491 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.6 8.3 8.1 8.0 8.1 LONG(DEG W) 137.1 137.7 138.3 138.8 139.4 140.4 141.3 142.3 143.3 144.4 145.6 146.6 147.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 20 22 26 38 48 50 44 41 54 70 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 26. 29. 34. 35. 36. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.8 137.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST 09/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 108.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 14.5% 6.9% 2.0% 1.0% 7.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 5.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 2.5% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST 09/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##