* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952016 08/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 12 12 16 12 15 16 20 17 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 -1 1 2 5 0 -2 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 271 239 256 266 250 279 243 241 235 249 261 284 258 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.4 26.2 26.8 27.3 26.7 26.1 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 133 128 125 132 137 131 124 125 123 118 116 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 46 45 46 44 45 48 45 45 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 5 13 19 28 23 21 24 31 37 31 48 200 MB DIV 24 27 20 30 37 22 9 -2 21 22 1 15 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 2 2 0 3 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1742 1781 1834 1890 1958 2132 2091 1845 1628 1425 1245 1085 1017 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.8 19.3 20.0 20.9 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.5 128.5 129.5 130.5 132.7 135.0 137.3 139.3 141.2 142.9 144.5 145.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 3 1 3 13 10 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.3 126.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST 08/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 157.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.73 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 22.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST 08/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##