* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952016 08/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 34 35 34 30 27 24 23 21 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 34 35 34 30 27 24 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 28 26 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 12 12 12 12 20 19 22 17 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 2 1 3 4 7 SHEAR DIR 334 316 292 286 287 257 269 253 271 237 267 267 298 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.7 26.3 27.0 27.2 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 141 141 139 131 127 134 137 128 125 122 118 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 54 52 50 46 46 44 43 40 36 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 7 6 1 7 13 32 37 45 44 63 52 200 MB DIV 10 16 20 17 16 25 20 14 9 8 10 -7 7 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 1 4 8 8 7 8 15 LAND (KM) 1492 1544 1603 1666 1707 1803 1948 2119 2041 1774 1518 1287 1067 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.2 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.3 123.4 124.5 125.5 126.6 128.5 130.7 132.9 135.4 137.9 140.3 142.5 144.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 21 13 9 6 0 8 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 5. 2. -1. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 122.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST 08/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.73 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.63 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 169.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.58 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.4% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 7.5% 7.4% 3.8% 1.9% 5.6% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 9.4% 6.7% 1.3% 0.6% 1.9% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST 08/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##