* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952016 07/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 36 36 34 28 23 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 36 36 34 28 23 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 1 2 6 11 11 13 19 23 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 -2 0 -2 1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 10 25 32 341 292 246 267 234 223 209 236 232 254 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.2 25.1 25.3 25.0 24.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 146 140 133 126 121 115 113 116 113 107 107 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 52 50 49 47 44 40 38 37 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 36 39 33 26 12 6 15 4 5 0 15 11 200 MB DIV 29 12 5 4 14 3 -16 -24 -12 -2 8 -37 -46 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 3 1 4 2 6 LAND (KM) 1164 1173 1208 1251 1266 1351 1485 1600 1726 1863 2016 2169 2069 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.9 117.9 118.9 119.9 121.9 124.0 125.8 127.7 129.6 131.5 133.4 135.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 40 33 13 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 9. 3. -2. -8. -13. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 116.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST 07/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.75 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.42 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 190.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.27 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.83 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 11.6% 7.7% 2.1% 0.8% 4.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 12.3% 8.4% 0.8% 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST 07/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##