* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 11/14/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 20 18 21 22 24 25 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 20 18 21 22 24 25 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 17 17 14 12 12 19 23 26 44 49 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 7 6 2 0 1 2 2 10 11 3 2 SHEAR DIR 217 235 244 247 232 221 222 232 223 232 221 239 240 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 150 151 152 151 150 149 148 145 138 131 127 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.3 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 63 62 64 61 61 63 65 67 72 66 50 33 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 13 13 13 13 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 21 23 17 18 20 41 23 18 22 1 0 21 200 MB DIV 85 83 71 35 49 34 51 51 61 77 61 -23 -14 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 12 2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 962 921 881 837 794 768 784 737 615 467 280 170 122 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 3 4 5 7 8 9 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 29 30 26 19 16 13 11 11 8 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -13. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -4. -3. -1. 0. -5. -13. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 109.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 11/14/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.2% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 5.4% 5.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 11/14/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##